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Bitcoin spot ETF? Professional says SEC has “very little wiggle room”


  • ETF analyst Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart say the percentages of a Bitcoin spot ETF approval this yr are 75%.
  • The Bloomberg ETF analysts say the SEC has “very little wiggle room” and that denying spot ETFs additional can be “politically untenable”.
  • The SEC has suffered each authorized and PR loss after Grayscale’s win.

The US Securities and Change Fee (SEC) has “very little wiggle room” now and can quickly must approve the primary Bitcoin spot ETF for the US market.

That’s Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart’s take after yesterday’s courtroom choice that granted a evaluation petition filed by Grayscale Investments. The percentages are up from 65%.

Specialists say odds of spot ETF have elevated

Balchunas shared his and Seyffart’s prediction of when the SEC may approve the ETF, noting a 75% likelihood it occurs in 2023 and 95% by the tip of subsequent yr. Noting that the SEC’s loss within the Grayscale lawsuit had elevated odds of a spot ETF lastly being authorized, the senior ETF analyst stated through a put up on X:

In line with the ETF specialists, the SEC has suffered a double loss that leaves additional denials “politically untenable.” Aside from the authorized blow that comes with Grayscale’s win, the US regulator is taking a look at a PR loss that has a far larger influence when it comes to setting narratives and altering minds. Mainstream’s protection of the story and what it implies doesn’t assist the company, Balchunas famous.

We think the legal and PR loss will combine to make denial politically untenable,” Balchunas wrote.

Whereas the SEC may delay upcoming ETF choices – and even deny them – the analysts say the regulator will discover it tough to disclaim the one by crypto asset administration agency Hashdex.

The SEC not too long ago delayed a choice on the Ark 21Shares Bitcoin ETF proposal, whereas tender deadlines for a number of filings together with for BlackRock, Constancy and others are arising.


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